Quote:
Originally Posted by warbird
Ths for ur feedback n analysis.
I guess in investing, one man's meat is another man's poison. Or could it be the Rashomon effect?
I use the biotech start up merely to illustrate how I calculate risk: reward ratio. In reality, there is more than meets the eye.
The biotech co of interest is a long-term investment for me. It has a novel product which has a 90% probability of being approved within the next 2 yrs. Yes, there is a 70% probability that it will be rejected 3 months from now n the stock price will be cut in half. I'll then back up the truck n buy much more. When it's approved, the stock price could surge to $20-30 immediately n may reach $50-100 or higher in the ensuing few yrs. In other words, my odds of making big buck r 90% in 2 yrs.
Short-term trading n gambling r entirely different. Even here I would wager my bet if the risk reward ratio is 1 to 2.57 in my favor. However, I will reduce the size of each bet so that I could survive the unlikely event of 10 consecutive losses. In the long run, say after betting over 100 hands, I'll win n win big.
I'm doing much better in my investing than in my BY-ing. I'm finding quite a few juicy investments targets, whereas there has been a dearth of pretty SYTs in SIN lately. The difference is that I can invest in Chinese stocks or stocks anywhere in the world from where I am, but I can't BY several SYTs living in China while I'm residing in SIN or Gotham City.
I must get ready to move to PRC next yr. Do I hv a choice? Import them? I need to see them n do a test drive first, hehehe.
Cheers!
Bro WB
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Bro WB
This thread also discussed risk and ratio in start-up biotech investment.
Not sure any thread have such diverse topics of discussion. Guiding and discussing investment.
Please keep us informed and updated on the recent investment topics.
Hopefully we can make some money too.
Hope to learn more here.
Bye.