[Hurricane88]

Viet Nam rates best in region for consumer confidence levels

(04-12-2008)

HCM CITY — In a consumer confidence index for the Asia-Pacific region calculated by the US company MasterCard, Viet Nam is the most optimistic among the 14 markets surveyed.

However, the poll also showed that Vietnamese consumers are less optimistic for the six-month period ahead (January to June 2009) when compared to the previous six months.

The index covers Viet Nam, mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, India, Singapore, Australia, Japan and New Zealand.

The survey was conducted from September 1 to September 29, 2008 and involved 6,019 consumers across key Asia-Pacific markets. Released twice a year, the index measures consumer confidence on prevailing expectations in the market.

A score of "Zero" is considered as the most pessimistic level, 100 as the most optimistic and 50, the neutral.

Out of the four markets found to be "optimistic", Viet Nam has come out on top. The other countries being China, India, and Singapore. Moreover, Viet Nam, whose overall score is 88.1, is the only market that increased its confidence level from six months ago.

Consumers in Viet Nam continue to be upbeat about employment (91.2), the economy (88.2), regular income (94.7), the stock market (79.4) and quality of life (86.9).

Despite the strong optimistic attitude reflected in the latest survey, Viet Nam’s score is lower than that of a year ago, when it was 94.3. Indeed, the current score is the country’s second lowest since its 2003 incorporation into the index.

Average consumer confidence across the region is 47.4 - a number significantly lower than the score six months ago (55.0) and a year ago (67.3). However, it is higher than the average of 32.3 during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Overall, consumer confidence has fallen across the indicators that make up the index compared to six months ago: employment (41.2 vs. 54.2); the economy (42.1 vs. 51.8); quality of life (44.0 vs. 48.2); the stock market (45.5 vs. 53.4); and regular income (64.3 vs. 72.2).

While China (76.6), India (63.9) and Singapore (62.3) remain optimistic about the first half of 2009, they are less optimistic than they were six months ago (China at 82.7; India at 82.1; Singapore at 87.3).

With a score of 49.0, Australian consumers are neutral in their outlook.

At the other end of the spectrum, the consumers in nine markets surveyed were declared as pessimistic, with Hong Kong and Taiwan recording the sharpest declines from the last survey.

Three markets, although pessimistic, have marginally improved their consumer confidence scores compared to six months ago. These include Indonesia (38.5 vs. 36.7), South Korea (31.4 vs. 27.7) and Thailand (26.2 vs. 23.7). Japan, at 17.2, is much more pessimistic than it was six months ago (29.0). Consumers from the Philippines (40.0), Malaysia (35.9) and New Zealand (33.7) are also reported as pessimistic.

Dr Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, an economic advisor to MasterCard in the Asia-Pacific region, said, "Consumers across Asia-Pacific are clearly feeling the effects of the global credit crisis. While Asian financial institutions may be less affected by the global credit crunch and the financial sector’s meltdown, Asian markets have been just as severely impacted; and the regional powerhouses like China and India are equally affected. While the consumer confidence scores in China and India are still optimistic, confidence levels are much lower than they were before."—VNS